So discreet. My love for Francesa is well-known.
Congratulations to the Texas Rangers, who have simultaneously repeated as American League champions while defying conventional wisdom. As we all know, the postseason is about starting pitching:
Number of Outs Recorded
18 (6 innings): Colby Lewis (ALDS Game 3), C.J. Wilson (ALCS Game 5)
17 (5.2 innings): Colby Lewis (ALCS Game 3)
15 (5 innings): C.J. Wilson (ALDS Game 1), Derek Holland (ALDS Game 2), Matt Harrison (ALDS Game 4 and ALCS Game 4)
14 (4.2 innings): C.J. Wilson (ALCS Game 1), Derek Holland (ALCS Game 6)
8 (2.2 innings): Derek Holland (ALCS Game 2)
Wilson, Holland, Lewis and Harrison have combined for a 5.62 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 2.54 HR/9 in 10 starts.
In honor of Martin Scorsese’s excellent documentary on George Harrison, here is a demo version of ‘Something.’
It’s fitting that after all of the consternation about starting pitching, the offense was ultimately the Yankees’ undoing in Game 5 of the ALDS against Detroit (“You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn! You just can’t!”). The Yanks, the team with the best run differential in baseball since 2007, bowed out in the first round for the fourth time in their last six playoff appearances. A-Rod struck out to end another season, setting off the first unwelcomed October celebration at the new stadium.
I’ve often contended that, despite its relative simplicity, no sport is misunderstood by the masses more than baseball. It has the largest sample size, requires the most patience and usually isn’t a good fit for the 24-hour world of instantaneous analysis that we inhabit. Some stuff is generally hard to explain: late-season collapses, good pitches that become bloopers, Enrique Wilson’s success against Pedro Martinez, random dominance by subpar pitchers, etc. Therefore, I’ve always been wary of drawing definitive conclusions when boiling 162 games down to five in October. However, that’s part of the blessing/curse of being a Yankee fan: portions of the regular season can feel like exhibition games when the playoffs have become akin to manifest destiny.
Confession: at no point during this season did I feel confident that the Yankees were going to win the World Series. Even as they claimed the AL East crown over the greatest professional team ever assembled, clinched homefield advantage and made preparations for the playoffs, it never seemed like the starting pitching was where it needed to be. While the 2006 Cardinals forever changed the way that I view October baseball, and the lineup and bullpen were definitely ring-worthy, it was mostly uncertainty beyond CC. Amazingly, even more questions surrounded the Yanks’ rotation than last postseason.
Statistically-speaking, the rotation was better than it was in 2009. Sure, Colon and Garcia tailed off to varying degrees down the stretch, but four pitchers with an ERA+ over 110 in the AL East isn’t something that can be dismissed. You could also make a case that the lineup and bullpen were better than their previous championship squad, but like many of the post-2003 Bombers, the composition of the pitching staff seemed better suited for 162 games than a short postseason series.
As a whole, there are much better metrics for measuring pitchers than quality starts. After all, the minimum (six innings, three earned runs) is equivalent to what is usually a league-average ERA. However, it’s telling when it comes to the Yankees’ recent postseasons:
1995: 0 quality starts in 5 games
1996: 5 quality starts in 15 games (Cone - 2, Pettitte - 2, Key - 1)
1997: 1 quality start in 5 games (Wells)
1998: 9 quality starts in 13 games (Wells - 3, Pettitte - 2, Cone - 2, Hernandez - 2)
1999: 10 quality starts in 12 games (Hernandez - 4, Pettitte - 2, Clemens - 2, Cone - 2)
2000: 8 quality starts in 16 games (Pettitte - 4, Hernandez - 2, Clemens - 2)
2001: 9 quality starts in 17 games (Pettitte - 3, Mussina - 3, Clemens - 2, Hernandez - 1)
2002: 0 quality starts in 4 games
2003: 13 quality starts in 17 games (Pettitte - 4, Mussina - 3, Clemens - 3, Wells - 3)
2004: 5 quality starts in 11 games (Mussina - 2, Lieber - 2, Brown - 1)
2005: 2 quality starts in 5 games (Wang - 1, Chacon - 1)
2006: 1 quality start in 4 games (Wang)
2007: 1 quality start in 4 games (Pettitte)
2009: 11 quality starts in 15 games (Sabathia - 5, Burnett - 3, Pettitte - 3)
2010: 5 quality starts in 9 games (Sabathia - 2, Pettitte - 2, Hughes - 1)
2011: 1 quality start in 5 games (Sabathia/Nova)*
(*It’s technically zero, but CC and Nova combined for a quality start in Game 1)
‘Team fares better when it has good pitching’ isn’t exactly a revolutionary notion, but it illustrates the point: aside from 2009, the Yanks have mostly failed to replicate the starts that they received from ‘96-‘03 (as an aside, I know I’m in the minority, but that’s how I define the most recent ‘dynasty’). During that eight-postseason stretch, quality starts resulted in a 46-9 record for Torre’s teams (and five of those nine losses occurred in ‘03). The retirement of Pettitte, one of the most reliable clutch pitchers in team history who accounted for five quality starts over the last two Octobers, only heightened the uncertainty. In fact, the following Yankees have tabulated the most quality starts in the playoffs since 2004:
Sabathia - 7.5
Pettitte - 6
Burnett - 3
Lieber -2
Mussina - 2
Wang - 2
Brown - 1
Chacon - 1
Hughes - 1
Nova - .5
Not exactly a list that inspired confidence (aside from the top two). In terms of changes for 2012, Posada’s $13.1 million will come off of the books. Assuming this really is the end of the line for him, then he went out in a blaze of glory based upon the WPA for this series:
Posada .272
Burnett .204
Nova .189
Gardner .181
Granderson .117
Robertson .093
Soriano .090
Logan .074
Rivera .050
Hughes .043
Nunez .033
Wade .025
Montero .012
Dickerson .000
Ayala -.019
Chavez -.044
Martin -.045
Cano -.065
Teixeira -.082
Jones -.102
Garcia -.117
Rodriguez -.249
Sabathia -.262
Jeter -.433
Swisher -.464
I think Posada is the most underappreciated Yankee of my lifetime. While A-Rod is obviously deserving of criticism for another disappointing postseason performance, it is (predictably) not being applied proportionally. Though, banged up or not, WPA indicates that this was the second-worst postseason of his Yankee career:
2009: 1.664 (ALDS: .809, ALCS: .525, WS: .330)
2004: 1.268 (ALDS: 1.199, ALCS: .069)
2005: -.118
2010: -.120 (ALDS: -.093, ALCS: -.027)
2007: -.150
2011: -.249
2006: -.283
Total: 2.012
More than half of his postseason plate appearances as a Yankee have occurred in 2004 and 2009, so there is a bit of dramatization to the discussion of A-Rod’s October futility, but no one can deny that it was another lackluster output. As for Swisher, he has now had an even 100 playoff PAs in pinstripes:
.160/.257/.330
16 hits
12 walks
28 strikeouts
Yikes. Despite that, I would be surprised if the team doesn’t pick his option up (and if Cashman isn’t the one who is making those decisions). Expect for Sabathia to opt out, but re-up and remain in the Bronx. Will Sterling and Waldman return? That is the most pressing question on all of our minds.
For the most part, the lineup should look the same. It is obvious that the organization doesn’t trust Montero behind the plate, so look for Martin to be brought back. Unless he’s dealt for a pitcher (which I really hope doesn’t happen aside from a few exceptions), Jesus will probably share time at DH with A-Rod, Jeter and other veterans who need half-days off.
But what about the rotation? It would be nice to find a true two (or 1A) this offseason. With all of the pitching depth in the system, imagine if Nova was being relied upon as a three in 2012. Also, despite a lost season, I maintain hope that Hughes’ right arm will come back to life someday. Plus, Joba can be plugged into the rotation once he recovers from Tommy John surgery (please tip your waiters).
Assuming that CC returns, Girardi currently has Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Nova and Noesi under contract in 2012. It’s doubtful that Banuelos, Betances or Brackman will get a serious look after Spring Training, and while Cashman might be able to find more reclamation success stories like Colon and Garcia on the scrap heap, is there anyone who will be able to separate and elevate in September and October?
Girardi’s over-managing can be frustrating, but he seems to handle New York and players’ personalities well. Plus, he is adept at not burning his bullpen out over the course of a regular season. Though he received some criticism for pulling Nova after two innings in Game 5 (especially before the injury was known), seven frames of mixing and matching only resulted in one run. I primarily had a problem with some of his decisions in Game 2, particularly pinch-hitting for Gardner with Chavez and letting Ayala pitch the ninth. Every playoff game should be treated as a must-win. It’s easy to judge choices of this nature in hindsight, but neither move made much sense to me at the time.
When you look at the big picture, the Yanks are in much better position as an organization than they were following many of their recent early exits (I’d contend that the worst time was when A-Rod opted out of his deal on the night when the Red Sox won the World Series in ‘07). While there are undoubtedly some bad contracts on the payroll, the Yankees are able to absorb signings that would cripple other franchises. Who knows what to expect from Burnett or Soriano moving forward. While Jeter was able to rebound and have an impressive 2011 campaign (.297/.355/.388), he struggled to make much of an impact against righties (.277/.329/.338). I’d still like to see him at or near the top of the lineup against lefties (.349/.423/.523), but it’s hard to make a case for him to continue on as the automatic leadoff hitter (which was the case in 96 of his 131 starts). The idea that A-Rod’s contract is an albatross shouldn’t be anything new, but more time at DH will keep him fresh and prevent undue breaking down.
Regardless, it will be an interesting offseason. It always is when Yankeeland falls short.
…(T)he fatiguing situation we have now with seven semi-announced candidates a year and a half away from the election running around the country Monday morning quarterbacking is also going too far. In my opinion, if the news media would quit trying to create false excitement by covering all potential presidential candidates in terms of a popularity poll, which is meaningless at this stage, they would be taking a giant step forward in journalistic responsibility.
Took a ride down the street to watch Phil Hughes’ rehab start for Double-A Trenton against the New Britain Rock Cats last night. After seeing that Hughes would be pitching here earlier in the week via Twitter, I was able to get a seat in the fourth row over the Thunder’s dugout (for $15 - got to love minor league baseball), so I had a decent vantage point (despite the shoddy picture produced by my old iPhone’s camera).
Hughes’ first: Groundout to third, flyout to right (to the warning track) and lineout to left.
Hughes’ second: Flyout to right (medium depth), groundout to second and strikeout (looking).
Hughes’ third: Flyout to right (shallow), double in the gap in right, walk (on four pitches), strikeout (looking) and fielder’s choice (6-4).
Hughes’ fourth: Walk, strikeout (looking), single (off 2b’s glove) and RBI single (ss couldn’t get the ball out of his glove).
Hughes departed with one out in the fourth (after his 70-pitch limit had been exceeded) with a line of three hits, one run (earned), two walks and three strikeouts on 72 pitches (42 strikes). Some thoughts:
-Hughes was hitting 93 and 94 on the stadium gun in the first two innings, but he consistently sat at 91 and 92 for most of the outing (which I believe is similar to what happened in his first rehab start).
-Couldn’t differentiate between cutters and two-seamers, but those were around 88-89 for most of the night.
-Hughes’ curve seemed fairly sharp, but I can only recall it getting a couple of swings and misses and he was definitely struggling to locate it. Threw much more off-speed stuff as his outing went along, even mixing in a few changeups.
-The double in the third and the long flyout in the first were the only balls that the Rock Cats hit particularly hard, but they were able to foul a lot of pitches off.
Conclusion: It’s too early to tell if Hughes’ apparent lower velocity is an indication of more fatigue issues or just a result of needing to rebuild arm strength after not pitching for so long (can’t imagine the cold and damp weather helped him get loose, either). However, I’d chalk it up as a mostly positive outing, as he was still able to get a number of swings and misses late despite clearly lacking his best command.
Don’t know how I’d classify ‘Nostalgia, Ultra’ in terms of a genre (I went with R&B in my iTunes library), but it’s definitely worth a listen. Simplest explanation: ‘808s & Heartbreak’ with less auto-tune and grief, and more samples of MGMT, The Eagles, Coldplay and Radiohead (albeit very briefly). Frank Ocean put the entire album online, so it’s free and not too hard to find.
Das Racist: underrated in the game like Mark Ruffalo.
Dear 2010,
The rational/mature side of my brain says I’ll appreciate the lessons you taught me in time. Until then, don’t come around here no more. Thanks for the roller-coaster ride.
-Frank
At Beck University, he offers a course titled “Presidents You Should Hate.” Part one focuses on Woodrow Wilson, part two on Franklin Roosevelt. Until those men rose to power, the political field belonged to politicians in the command of business.
“There’s one road to the morning/There’s one road to the truth/There’s one road back to civilization/But there’s no road back to you.”
Listen, you can make an argument that other Christmas/holiday songs are on the same level as this, but I will literally fight anyone who thinks they can top it.
10 for 2010
We’re rapidly approaching the end of December. You know what that means: it’s time for the requisite ‘best of’ list. You’re not allowed to get upset about any of these selections because they’re based entirely on my opinions. Here are my 10 favorite albums from 2010:
10) Big Boi - ‘Sir Lucious Left Foot: The Son of Chico Dusty’
I’m a product of the suburbs, so I was unfashionably late when it came to hip-hop. Attending high school in Lynn, MA changed all of that. OutKast became an early favorite and Big Boi’s solo debut has a lot of those same familiar elements without just sounding like he kicked Andre 3000 out of the studio.
9) Wale - ‘More About Nothing’
I went back and forth as to whether or not I could include this since it’s a mixtape, but then I remembered that I’m the law. Only liked a handful of tracks on ‘Attention Deficit’ after growing very fond of ‘The Mixtape About Nothing.’ Anyhow, this is worth checking out because of the ‘Seinfeld’ references, Kevin Durant’s cameo and the track written from Tiger Woods’ perspective (and my praise).
8) The Black Keys - ‘Brothers’
I’m a big fan of this duo, but I wouldn’t consider myself an expert on their discography. Regardless, I’ve got to imagine this is the most mainstream album they’ve ever made (which isn’t a bad thing - cue the age-old ‘selling out vs. evolving’ debate). All that matters is there are a ton of different (and fun) guitar tones, which is usually the best part of any Black Keys release.
7) Arcade Fire - ‘The Suburbs’
Arcade Fire is essentially the new White Stripes, in that I’m made to feel like there’s something wrong with me if I don’t like any of the music they put out. Love ‘Funeral,’ but wasn’t a fan of ‘Neon Bible’ aside from a few songs. I guess I’ve seen the light again. “Businessmen drink my blood like the kids in art school said they would” must be on most lists for lyrics of the year (if those exist).
6) B.o.B - ‘B.o.B. Presents the Adventures of Bobby Ray’
This is not just because of the presences of Rivers Cuomo and Vampire Weekend. ‘Nothin’ on You’ is so catchy that I sometimes think I’ll eventually need therapy to get Bruno Mars’ chorus out of my head. At the very least, I look forward to seeing what B.o.B comes up with next because he has the potential to be a unique artist. The fact that his stage name is a tribute to the OutKast classic (which still brings a certain basketball playlist to mind) only makes me like him more.
5) Danger Mouse and Sparklehorse - ‘Dark Night of the Soul’
’Dark Night of the Soul’ has some odd moments, but it’s a really enjoyable album that becomes more interesting with every listen. Appearances by Julian Casablancas (The Strokes), James Mercer (The Shins), The Flaming Lips and many more special guests only add to the overall goodness. I have a lot of respect for Danger Mouse’s production skills (also see ‘The Grey Album,’ ‘Demon Days,’ ‘Attack & Release’ and ‘Modern Guilt’) and wonder what he’ll come up with on U2’s next album.
4) Kings of Leon - ‘Come Around Sundown’
I saw Kings of Leon open for U2 in Boston in 2005. Even though I wasn’t familiar with most of their music, had no idea what Caleb Followill was saying three-quarters of the time and every member of the band was wearing overalls, there was something that made me want to investigate. They’ve been among my favorites ever since, but everyone likes them now (the ‘selling out vs. evolving’ debate strikes again). ‘Only By the Night’ is a good album, but it felt too poppy (for lack of a better word) at times. While ‘Come Around Sundown’ has many mainstream elements (and country in ‘Back Down South’), it’s definitely more of a rock record than this group’s previous effort.
3) Eminem - ‘Recovery’
Not going to lie: didn’t think ‘Recovery’ was much of an upgrade over ‘Relapse’ halfway through my first listen. Then came the flurry of rhymes that brought me back to my time in middle school, when his album release dates were practically unofficial holidays. Sure, he’s not making the same kind of music as a decade ago, but people change, so why shouldn’t we expect the same from artists that we like?
2) Vampire Weekend - ‘Contra’
Vampire Weekend’s debut album is so good that I was literally hooked midway through ‘Mansard Roof.’ There are more tones, textures and instrumentation on ‘Contra,’ but it still doesn’t stray too far from the band’s original formula. For me, ‘Taxi Cab,’ ‘Diplomat’s Son’ and ‘I Think Ur a Contra’ are the highlights because they exhibit the quartet’s musical versatility.
1) Kanye West - ‘My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy’
This is at the top of a lot of these lists, so I looked for every excuse to go in a different direction, but I just couldn’t do it (wouldn’t be prudent). I have loved Kanye ever since I purchased ‘The College Dropout’ in London shortly after my graduation from high school. I thank him for reverting back to rapping and making the most memorable (and interesting) album of the year. Every listen brings new discoveries, and Chris Rock makes me laugh every time (“Yeezy taught me!”).
Guaranteed highlight of the next year in music: the first album from The Strokes in nearly five years.
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